In 2011, the price of sulfur rose in the first half of the year under the influence of speculative funds. In the second half of the year, although demand was weak, commodity prices generally fell, and the sulfur market hit a new high. After the end of October, the fertilizer exports were closed, and sulphur was in low demand. The inhibitory effect appears, and the price gradually falls back. Looking at various influencing factors, the overall situation of the domestic sulfur market in 2012 will be better than last year, and the price may exceed the 2,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) mark.
Tariff reduction of import costs reduces the supply gap in China's sulfur market, and foreign dependence exceeds 60%. The number of sulphur imports decreased by approximately 10% in 2011, and domestic apparent consumption increased to approximately 13 million tons. From January 1, 2012, the import tariff on sulfur will be reduced from 3% to 1%, and the resources will increase due to the cost reduction. The period of destocking in the domestic sulfur market has entered the end of the period. Social inventory resources have replaced some of the imported sulfur market shares. As time goes on, the amount of social inventory resources will gradually decrease, and China's imports of sulphur resources will increase in the future. It is expected that the import volume in 2012 will exceed 10 million tons.
Changes in exchange rates will affect the unilateral appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar in the market, or will continue into the first half of 2012. The appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar is beneficial to the import of sulphur. The sulphur import volume is expected to increase substantially in the first half of the year. However, the probability of entering two-way volatility in the second half of the year has increased significantly Depreciation of the renminbi is expected to begin in the second half of 2012. Sulphur imports will be bad and fertilizer exports will be favorable.
New capacity changes to change the supply structure In 2011, China's sulphur production capacity reached 6.8 million tons, and the actual output was about 4 million tons. The output increased by more than 10% from the previous year. Renewable oil production is expected to increase in 2012, such as CNPC Guangdong Jieyang 20 million tons/year large oil refining project, CNPC Chongqing 10 million tons/year large-scale oil refining project, Sinopec Nansha 15 million tons/year refining project, PetroChina and Russia in Tianjin It is planned to build a 10 million-ton/year oil refining project and Sinochem International Quanzhou 12 million tons/year oil refining project. According to comprehensive calculations, the capacity of the associated sulfur recovery unit will exceed 1 million tons/year. In terms of natural gas desulfurization, Luojiazhai Natural Gas Purification Plant is expected to resume production in 2012. The designed capacity of the sulfur recovery unit is 1.3 million tons/year, which will become the second largest sulfur production base after the Puguang Natural Gas Purification Plant. If the above-mentioned enterprises are successfully put into operation in 2012, the domestic sulfur production capacity is expected to exceed 9 million tons/year, the actual output is expected to reach 4.5 million tons/year, and the external dependence of sulfur will continue to decrease.
Consolidation and consolidation of Sinopec's leading position In April 2011, Sinopec began its sulfur marketing program, and 28 of its subsidiaries' sulfur products belonged to Sinopec's refining and sales companies to uniformly deploy sales. Sinopec has occupied nearly 20% of the market share of China's sulphur market, and consolidated sales have consolidated its leading position in China's sulphur market. As the import of sulphur business continues to increase, the run-in period of “buoy up and boost up and fall down†has basically come to an end. It is expected that the ups and downs of sulphur and phosphate fertilizer prices will gradually slow down in 2012 and steadily increase or become the main Keynote, the medium-to-long-term market may have good performance.
Phosphate fertilizer production capacity boosted sulphur consumption In 2011, phosphate fertilizer production capacity grew steadily. Relevant data show that from January to December 2011, the output of phosphate fertilizer (recovery) was 14.624 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. It is expected that new equipment will be put into operation in 2012, and the demand for sulfur will increase steadily. At present, China’s economic inflationary pressure is huge. Continue to increase investment in agricultural production and other policies to encourage agricultural development are expected to ensure fertilizer demand. Although the phosphate fertilizer market still exceeds supply, the expected rigid demand in the future is expected to support sulfur consumption.
Optimism of the prospect of vulcanization industry In recent years, the development of special sulfur and fine sulfur chemical industry has been rapid. High-value-added products such as insoluble sulfur, thiourea, sodium hydrosulfide, and dimethyl sulfoxide have become the key development directions for many sulfur resource producers. Sulfur resources are extracted from a number of companies and finely-cured sulfide products are produced. The market share of sulphur in the sulfur market of China for fine-scale sulfuration production continues to increase. According to statistics, currently more than 10% of sulphur is used in special sulfur and fine sulphidizing production, and the proportion maintains a rapid growth trend.
Relevant analysts believe that this year's sulphur prices will begin to enter the market from the low-to-middle prices last year. Although the import of sulfur tariffs is reduced, it has little effect on the operation of traders. Spring fertilizer is a new opportunity for rising sulfur prices, followed by peak fertilizer exports. With the same export tariffs on fertilizers, domestic sulphur prices may be pushed to the peak. During the winter reserve fertilizer phase, the price of sulphur will be reconsolidated. In addition, domestic sulphur prices are the destabilizing factor of domestic sulphur prices. As the import volume is much larger than domestic production, the impact of domestic sulphur prices is limited. The overall situation of the sulphur market this year will be better than last year.
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