Industry insiders predict that there will be a dramatic increase in global ethylene demand by 2010, and new demand will reach 30 million tons/year. Among them, China's ethylene demand will increase by 50% from the current 20 million tons/year. However, during the same period, only the planned increase of ethylene production capacity in the Middle East will reach 16 million to 21 million tons/year, and China's new production capacity will also reach 12 million tons/year. As the new production capacity is faster than the demand growth rate, the global ethylene plant operating rate will drop from 95% to less than 90% by 2010, which will bring greater pressure on the profitability of the manufacturers. By then, the global ethylene market will turn to be very tired.
It is estimated that in 2010, the world's ethylene production capacity will reach 155 million tons, with an increase of 39.5 million tons of new production capacity, and 83% of new production capacity will be concentrated in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. By 2010, the ethylene production capacity in the Middle East will reach 27 million tons, an increase of 16 million tons from 2005, which will replace Western Europe as the third largest petrochemical production base in the world. At present, there is a serious surplus of petrochemical products such as ethylene glycol, polyethylene, and polypropylene in the Middle East, and a large number of products must be exported.
Although in the next few years, the Middle East will continue to be the fastest growing region in the world for ethylene, some people in the industry point out that Latin America, as an emerging petrochemical power, will have a significant impact on the world petrochemical industry and may become a world petrochemical producer. New destination for transfer. Nexant believes that the ethylene industry will fall from the overcapacity from 2011 to 2012 to the lowest point of its production cycle. In addition to the production of new capacity in the Middle East and China, there are also more production capacity in Latin America. In recent years, the political environment in Latin America has been relatively stable and the population has grown rapidly. The demand for petrochemical products has increased significantly. Due to tight supply, some companies in Latin America are planning to build a large-scale petrochemical complex, especially in Brazil, where the petrochemical industry has developed quite rapidly.
It is understood that Brazil owns four major companies: Petrobras, Braskem, Suzano and UNIPAR, which operate in the petrochemical industry. The production is mainly concentrated in Bahia, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Rio Grande do Sul. According to the plan, from 2007 to 2010, the total investment in the petrochemical industry in Brazil will increase by 220% from 2003 to 2006, and most of the investment will be concentrated in the Rio de Janeiro Petrochemical Industrial Park. For example, in order to solve the problem of shortage of raw materials for domestic petrochemical industrial production, Petrobras plans to invest 8.5 billion U.S. dollars in Rio de Janeiro to build an ultra-large ethylene integration project. At present, the annual production capacity of ethylene in Brazil is 3.4 million tons, and it is expected that the production capacity will increase by 45% by 2010.
In another development, Venezuela plans to build a 1.2 million-ton/year extra-large ethylene project in Jose, and Trinidad and Tobago plans to build an ethylene plant using natural gas as raw material. More and more natural gas projects such as methanol and synthetic ammonia will shift from the United States to Trinidad and Tobago, which has low-cost resources.
It is estimated that in 2010, the world's ethylene production capacity will reach 155 million tons, with an increase of 39.5 million tons of new production capacity, and 83% of new production capacity will be concentrated in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. By 2010, the ethylene production capacity in the Middle East will reach 27 million tons, an increase of 16 million tons from 2005, which will replace Western Europe as the third largest petrochemical production base in the world. At present, there is a serious surplus of petrochemical products such as ethylene glycol, polyethylene, and polypropylene in the Middle East, and a large number of products must be exported.
Although in the next few years, the Middle East will continue to be the fastest growing region in the world for ethylene, some people in the industry point out that Latin America, as an emerging petrochemical power, will have a significant impact on the world petrochemical industry and may become a world petrochemical producer. New destination for transfer. Nexant believes that the ethylene industry will fall from the overcapacity from 2011 to 2012 to the lowest point of its production cycle. In addition to the production of new capacity in the Middle East and China, there are also more production capacity in Latin America. In recent years, the political environment in Latin America has been relatively stable and the population has grown rapidly. The demand for petrochemical products has increased significantly. Due to tight supply, some companies in Latin America are planning to build a large-scale petrochemical complex, especially in Brazil, where the petrochemical industry has developed quite rapidly.
It is understood that Brazil owns four major companies: Petrobras, Braskem, Suzano and UNIPAR, which operate in the petrochemical industry. The production is mainly concentrated in Bahia, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Rio Grande do Sul. According to the plan, from 2007 to 2010, the total investment in the petrochemical industry in Brazil will increase by 220% from 2003 to 2006, and most of the investment will be concentrated in the Rio de Janeiro Petrochemical Industrial Park. For example, in order to solve the problem of shortage of raw materials for domestic petrochemical industrial production, Petrobras plans to invest 8.5 billion U.S. dollars in Rio de Janeiro to build an ultra-large ethylene integration project. At present, the annual production capacity of ethylene in Brazil is 3.4 million tons, and it is expected that the production capacity will increase by 45% by 2010.
In another development, Venezuela plans to build a 1.2 million-ton/year extra-large ethylene project in Jose, and Trinidad and Tobago plans to build an ethylene plant using natural gas as raw material. More and more natural gas projects such as methanol and synthetic ammonia will shift from the United States to Trinidad and Tobago, which has low-cost resources.
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