China's Agricultural Machinery Market Expected to Expect Second Half of 2010

The performance of the agricultural machinery market in the first half of 2010 was unexpected. With unfavorable subjective and objective factors such as unfavorable agricultural meteorology, implementation of subsidy projects, weak user demand, and reduced purchasers, the sales of the agricultural machinery market did not follow the path people expected at the beginning of the year. The hot year is very different. In the face of reality, many people's good wishes once again fail. However, the first half of the year has become a thing of the past. When we look back at the past and sum up experiences and lessons, we must also focus our attention and struggle on the latter stage of the market. After comprehensive analysis of various factors, the author believes that the opportunities for the agricultural machinery market in the second half of the year are still large, and well-prepared enterprises will also have a lot to do.

I. Analysis of the favorable factors of the agricultural machinery market in the second half of the year

1, left the demand gap in the first half

In 2009, China's agricultural machinery market experienced an unprecedentedly good situation. Many companies have achieved good business performance and earned enough money. However, due to insufficient preparation for the market, many companies last year caused the arrival of the peak season due to the lack of timely delivery. There is a phenomenon of losing goods after being out of stock. This year learned lessons from last year's experience. Companies have generally strengthened production preparation and increased channel distribution. However, due to the overall implementation time of national projects is two months later than in 2009, some regions and some products have missed sales opportunities. For example, in March and April, the medium and large wheeled tractors, spring planting spring planting operations, and wheat combine harvester operations in the summer, which also set aside a gap in the demand for agricultural machinery products in the second half of the year. According to the statistics of previous years, the ratio of sales demand for agricultural machinery products in the first and second half of the year is approximately 7:3. Due to the late implementation of the project this year, many places missed the agricultural time. Therefore, it is expected that the ratio of sales demand will be approximately 6.5:3.5 before and after half year, so the latter half year The market size is still worthy of attention.

2. The project of the national supplement project is expected to start early in the second half of the year

Last year, the second batch of 3 billion national compensation funds was formally allocated in mid-September. It inevitably missed the sales opportunities for some agricultural machinery in August and September, and also affected the fall cultivation in autumn. In the first half of this year, a batch of projects were made in mid-May. It entered the peak period and seriously affected the sale of farm machinery products and farmland operations. In April and May of this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Machinery Industry Association organized personnel to visit all parts of the country and some key enterprises. All companies generally commented on the start-up of this year's projects. Drawing lessons from last year and the first half of this year, and considering the recommendations of most enterprises, it is expected that the second batch of state-owned funds will be earlier than the same period of last year, and the project will start earlier than the same period of last year. In the first half of the year, the Ministry of Agriculture had news that the second batch of national funds will be allocated at the end of June. However, as of mid-July, no allocation has been made. From the regular analysis of agricultural season and agricultural product sales season, it is expected that the Ministry of Agriculture will end in late July or early August. The second batch of subsidy funds of 5.5 billion yuan is allocated, and the second batch of projects will also start after the funds are allocated. The start of the project will help the company to develop marketing activities with ease, and users will have sufficient time to make selections and comparisons. The extension of effective sales time will definitely increase product sales, and it will also benefit the overall market development in the next year.

3. Two batches of national supplementary funds guarantee

Although demand did not meet people's expectations in the first half of the year, and companies were generally under heavy inventory pressure, companies did not show any apparent uneasiness and panic. This is because we all know that there are still 5.5 billion yuan of national supplementary funds in the second half of the year. Focus on implementation. Looking at the quantity alone, in the second half of the year, the total amount of 55 billion yuan of national supplementary funds will be more than the total amount of national supplementary funds from 2004 to 2008. Therefore, all companies generally place great expectations on the market in the second half of the year. They all want to be in the second half of the year. Exhibitions, especially those with large sales gaps in the first half of the year, are brewing a competitive promotion policy in the near future. They plan to fight for the largest possible cake in the market competition in the second half of the year. The second batch of national supplement funds will be the reassurance of each company. However, in the end, the number of people who can eat and eat depends on the overall strength of the company and its grasp of market opportunities.

4, increase in revenue will pull the demand for agricultural machinery

Anything has two sides. In the first half of this year, the sales of combine harvesters have fallen by 50% year-on-year, which has caused great impact on the operations of large enterprises such as Futian, Ward, and Gold Billion. The company has an unprecedented inventory size and unusually difficult capital turnover. On the other hand, for the operators participating in the cross-region operations, due to the halving of new machines this year, and the many machinemen who purchased the machine last year to work outside, the combined harvesters that participated in the three-season cross-district operation this year were significantly reduced. The competition between the aircraft operators has been eased, and the income of most of the aircraft operators is generally higher than that of the same period of last year. The expected time for investment recovery of machines has been shortened. Affected by this favorable factor, in the second half of this year, some agricultural machinery and cooperatives will increase the demand for large-scale, high-efficiency machinery and equipment for large-scale tractors and corn harvesters, plus the national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy program. Focusing on subsidies for these machines and equipment, it is expected that demand for these products will see a wave of sales peaks in the second half of the year.

5, other factors

Different from the first half of the year, there will also be some non-national agricultural projects to be implemented or closed in the second half of each year. For example, a multi-year high-quality grain project, a commodity grain base construction project, an additional 50 billion grain projects, and autumn farmland capital construction projects and diseases Dangerous reservoirs, dams and reinforcements and maintenance works, as well as some other local agricultural projects and new rural construction projects, will directly and indirectly increase the demand for agricultural machinery. Therefore, we have reason to believe that the demand for agricultural machinery in the second half of the year is still very satisfactory. Worth the wait.

Second, the characteristics of market competition in the second half

Due to the fixed subsidies for agricultural machinery products this year and the lack of sales in the first half of the year, in order to clear inventory within the channels as soon as possible, all companies will place great emphasis on market opportunities in the second half of the year. For companies that do not have brand advantages, they will certainly choose price reductions. While expanding sales, strong companies must also follow the trend passively in order to maintain their market position. Certainly, it is not ruled out that some large-scale enterprises have taken the lead in initiating a price war in order to integrate the market and crack down on competitors. Price is the most powerful competitive tool. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the price war will become the mainstream and normal industry competition, and the result of the price war will be that enterprises with strong comprehensive strength and cost control ability will win, while some will have weak competitiveness. The enterprises will be eliminated, and this year will be the first year since the implementation of the government’s subsidy policy in 2004. The current number of domestic manufacturers of agricultural machinery products has reached an abnormal state, if the industry does not compete again. The elimination will definitely affect the healthy development of the industry.

Third, the company's marketing recommendations

1. Carefully arrange production in the second half of the year

After the end of the first half of the year, there are still a large number of domestic agricultural machinery sales channels. According to incomplete statistics, there are 500 million units of large and medium-sized wheels and 25,000 units of harvesters. At present, many companies are in a dilemma. If enterprises are still actively producing and stocking as they were at the beginning of the year, the demand for the market will remain sluggish in the six months to come. Enterprises will have more inventories to bear, but if the stocks are insufficient, the peak season will come as scheduled. The opportunity will be lost.

There is no immutable market and no fixed demand. The market economy is characterized by coexistence of risks and opportunities. Faced with the current development of the agricultural machinery market, enterprises should actively and prudently arrange production reserves under the premise of paying close attention to the actions of the second batch of countries. , Reasonable reserves, for some of the hot products in the first half of the current mainstream products and increase channel distribution, for some non-hot products for key spare parts reserves, in order to prepare the market for energy in time to carry out production and assembly.

2. Introduce a competitive promotion policy

With the continuous addition of two-digit new companies each year, the competition in the agricultural machinery industry is now heating up. The homogenization competition is being carried out in various fields. Observing the sales of agricultural machinery products in recent years, we can see that the competition among the current enterprises has been The original industry’s national resources race around the provincial capitals has evolved into a terminal interception battle in one village and one town. The reason for this phenomenon is mainly the result of competition. Under a certain amount of demand, the rapid increase of competitors will inevitably force companies to expand the scope of sales and sink sales channels. According to local conditions, the channels of agricultural machinery companies are now It has already sunk to the township level, and companies are often fighting for the first time in order to grab a two-subsidy target. Close-grappling is the most appropriate illustration of the current competition in the agricultural machinery market.

The cruelty of competition requires companies to raise marketing to a strategic height. In order to survive and develop, enterprises must introduce attractive business policies to enhance the confidence of distributors and introduce competitive product promotion measures to stimulate users' desire to purchase. In the current competitive situation, large companies must introduce price combinations, services, brands, advertising, and other combinations to reshuffle the industry, recoup lost land by eliminating SMEs and outdated production capacity, increase market share, improve industry status, and establish a competitive threshold. However, SMEs must also adopt flexible marketing strategies to occupy the technology, face strong competitors, avoid their edges, choose their own competitive areas, focus on firepower breakthroughs, or conduct deep cultivation in areas where their competitive basis is better, Spotlight on marketing development.